The Radio Africa Group survey indicates that Senator Edwin Sifuna and Embakasi East MP Babu Owino are currently the favourites for Nairobi’s top seats. The poll, conducted between July 25 and 27 among 500 registered voters (margin of error ±4.4%), shows the two leaders holding significant leads over their rivals.
Babu Owino has taken a commanding lead in the race for governor, securing 42% of the vote. This puts him 24 percentage points ahead of their competitor, Johnson Sakaja, who garnered only 17.6%.
The data suggests dissatisfaction with the current administration, as a large segment of the electorate rated Sakaja’s performance as “fair” or “poor”.
Top Voter Concerns:
Unemployment & Insecurity: 24%
Cost of Living: 20%
Infrastructure/Sanitation: Cited as secondary priorities.
Senator Edwin Sifuna continues to hold a firm grip on the Senate race with 47.5% support. His closest challenger, Lang’ata MP Phelix Odiwuor (Jalang’o), trails significantly at 21.6%.
Also Read: Tribunal Halts ODM Move to Oust Sifuna as Secretary-General
Sifuna’s strong showing bolsters his political capital as he weighs defending his seat versus a potential presidential bid, spurred by growing support from Western Kenya.
The poll highlights a strategic crisis for the ruling coalition. While Babu Owino benefits from a unified opposition base, the UDA faction appears divided among multiple candidates, effectively splitting their vote share.
Key Takeaway:
Unless the ruling coalition consolidates behind a single candidate, the fragmented vote likely paves a smooth path for Babu Owino and the opposition.
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